Mayor Gatchalian expressed the most honest assessment of Habagat's devastation...

“Natatandaan ko noong tumama ang Ondoy, sabi ng weather forecasters 50 years bago maulit. Naghanda naman kami pero hindi natin inakala na ganoon kabilis. Wala pa ngang 4 years. Kung magiging regular na ganito, sabi ko, ‘Safe pa ba tumira sa Metro Manila?'”

-- Sherwin Gatchalian, Valenzuela Mayor via DZMM, Aug. 2012

Funny! Sarcastic but funny! Helpless but still funny!

If that will not wake us from the stupor, nothing will.

Typhoon Gener (International Name: Soala), who visited a week earlier, was more forgiving.

From August 6-8, 2012, monsoon rains (known locally as "habagat" ) wreaked havoc in Metro Manila and the outlying suburbs submerging at least 60% of the area and turning the premiere metropolis into a virtual waterworld.

(Source: Canada's National Post. Kindly click link to view more pictures)

Quoting a Jesuit missionary in 1668, Rigoberto Tiglao wrote in the Inquirer :

"This type of hurricane is a very strong tempest, so many and so strong hitting these islands that neither Virgil nor Ovid nor any other poet I have read can describe its destructive power. These occur very often and we suffer so much, that even after experiencing them, it is difficult to believe these can happen."

-- F. I. Alzina, a Jesuit missionary in the Philippines, 1668

That 17th century Jesuit was writing as if he was describing yesterday's "Habagat." There's no eureka moment. Three things are clear.

First

Our country gets frequented by monsoon rains and typhoons as documented as far back as the 17th century.

Second

Our preparations always fall short, hampered by "Ningas Cogon."

Third

There is no wholistic approach to solving the problem.

Marikina River's Cover Girl

Marikina suffered zero casualties this time around in Habagat, partly because of a good system learned from Ondoy - complete with a siren to warn the residents to start evacuating. In September 2009, Typhoon Ondoy took the lives of 35 residents.

During Ondoy, sexy actress Christine Reyes climbed to her roof to escape the rising waters. In the picture below, she is all wet but sober.

The Marikina river park which is along the banks has a giant statue of "Marikit-Na" and you can compare from the picture the height of the water during the rampages of Ondoy and Habagat.

DOST recorded the total rainfall from August 6-8 at 1,007 millimeters (1 meter) yet it's effect was devastating. Water level in the Maikina River rose nearly 20 meters above sea level in most parts.

At the boundary of San Mateo and Marikina, the elevation of the river is only about 8 meters above sea level. The lowest point of the Marikina River is in Calumpang where it is normally only about 2 meters above sea level. (Source: Wikipedia)

Flooding has two faces: Input and output

Looking through all the analyses, finger-pointing, pictures and videos of the event, there has been less emphasis on the fast run-off water coming from the Sierra Madre even from the leading news networks, GMA-7, ABS-CBN and TV5.

During Sendong, Cagayan de Oro and Iligan in Mindanao suffered from the same phenomenon as detailed in Sendong: Anatomy of a Disaster.

If the drainage system in Manila is working, it can well take care of any rainfall. Well, sort of.

Based on the official records, the monsoon rain's accumulated rainfall on August 6, 7 and 8 reached 1,007 millimeters. That's only 1 meter, or just about above your waist. Theoretically, all things being equal, it could reach up to your waist if the area has no drainage.

But what happens when rainfall from another place dumps its load in the Metropolis? Say, water from the Sierra Madre mountain ranges?

Here's a general idea of the drainage system affecting Metro Manila.

Water from the Sierra Madre Mountains, through its myriad of tributaries, finds its way to the Marikina and Pasig Rivers. From the illustration below, the fern-like diagrams encompasses the streams and smaller rivers feeding the Marikina river, most have their headwaters deep in the Sierra Madre.


Tributaries of the Marikina-Pasig Rivers originate from the Sierra Madre

Now, why is the Sierra Madre delivering greater number of run-off water lately?

Climate change is the most convenient excuse but that is something we have no direct control over.

An answer closer to home is logging. As the years pass, more and more areas in the Sierra Madre Mountain Ranges have become denuded.

The Sierra Madre is closer to Metro Manila than you may think. The green patch on the map on the left illustrates the proximity of Sierra Madre to Metro Manila (boxed in blue).

Four dams regulate the flow of water from the Sierra Madre to Metro Manila - Bustos and a set of three dams in succession - Angat, Ipo and La Mesa.

At the bottom of the map, Caliraya Dam supplies water to the Laguna de Bay which empties into the Pasig-Marikina River System. Around the vicinity of Caliraya lake, San Miguel Corporation plans to put up the Laiban Dam to supply water to MWSS and this is now being widely opposed.

The Angat-Ipo-La Mesa water system supplies 90% of the water MWSS distribute to Manila Water and Maynilad (Source: Wikipedia)

Lower inset shows a wasteland due to open-pit coal mining by Semirara Mining Corporation. It can never be restored. The scarred area approximates an area 1/4 the size of Metro Manila.

Executive Order No. 23

On February 1, 2011, President Benigno Aquino issued Executive Order No. 23 calling for a nationwide moratorium on logging activities. It considers climate change and the aggravating factors (i.e. forest denudation) that lead to flash floods.

Question: Is this being followed? It's more of a bark with no real meaningful bite.

From 1991-2010, the Philippines was ranked 10th in the Global Climate Risk Index - a list of countries most affected by weather extremes such as floods and storms. Lately, we moved up to 7th place.

Incessant illegal logging and mining activities have made the situation go downhill going by these multiple news links.

The fight could be won actually, like - tracing the ownership of trucks and other log-moving equipment, manning common exit points in known logging areas coupled with zealous media watchdogs.

However, media practitioners are not relentless in pursuing leads as "naghahapbuhay lang po.!" (Just making a living..). Those who really pursue illegal loggers are silenced by bullets. Read, So Ok. Who's Next? Please Raise Your Right Hand!

There are many more articles in the internet about the ongoing illegal logging activities in the country but the next link epitomizes our government's fight against illegal logging. It forms a concrete picture of what has been in our minds all along -

DENR Secretary Michael Defensor wines and dines with alleged tree-cutting violator.

Illegal logging is an offshoot of legal logging. Nobody checks or cares anymore if the logs on a truck lumbering down a mountain were cut down from within a concession (legal) or outside (illegal).

Shooting two birds with one stone

The almost half a trillion pesos announced by Malacanang for flood control in the next few months and years is better used to hire tens of thousand of volunteers to watch the forests and start re-planting the Sierra Madre.

Gmelina and Falcata are fast growing species and could attain the proper height in five years. Inter-cropped with any hardwood species, it would make a formidable front line against run-off water from typhoons and monsoon rains.

Salaries for 100,000 persons at P12,000/month equals P14.4 billion per year, P144 billion in 10 years, P288 billion in TWENTY YEARS!

There will be no shortage of volunteers. This will be a relocation incentive for squatters in Manila to return to the province with an offer for a good and decent job.

There should also be a reward system for informants on illegal logging and it should match the price tag on Gen. Jovito Palparan's head.

Home along the Esteros and other Wretched States

"I visited two places that are within walking distance of each other, but looked so completely different you wouldn’t think they belong to the same city: Estero de San Miguel and Malacañang." (From jlagman17.blogspot.com)

"Manila’s myriad urban problems would more likely come from the squatter settlements than from the exclusive enclaves that Manila’s elite inhabit"..."I came to realize that most of the squatters were there by choice. More often than not, they paid rent to someone who had connections with local authorities..."
(From urbanlandscape.org.uk)

(One of the comments in boston.com. Read the full article here.)

"Drinking-straw solution"

The increasing heavy drainage load from the Sierra Madre has been acknowledged with the completion in 1986 of the Manggahan Floodway, as pictured below.

The banks of the floodway are actually relocation sites of squatters. (Source: Wikipedia)

However, based on the total drainage area of the Sierra Madres affecting Metro Manila, it would seem that the Manggahan Floodway is pretty miniscule.

Analyze the illustration below.

The Manggahan Floodway can flow both ways. If Laguna de Bay has a higher water level, water flow reverses in the floodway and drains itself back into the Marikina Rive.

On August 10, 2012, two days after Habagat devastated Metro Manila, PAG-ASA reports that water from the Sierra Madre continued to fill the Angat reservoir.

In the past years, the more we spend for infrastructure to protect us from floods, the more deadly and devastating the floods have become.

Before, there were already floods. Yes, but they were not this "tsunami-like."

Perhaps, the approach is wrong.

Starting with the Manggahan Floodway, the government's action plans dwell more on the 2nd half of the problem illustrated above. The links below details the government's plans on how to catch the water coming from upstream.

Aquino bares twin solutions to Metro flooding

DPWH bares flood control projects for 12 river systems, 12 more under study

Palafox: 'Wrong models used in Metro urban planning'

Eco-lawyer: Common sense will solve floods

The experience in Louisiana, USA during Hurricane Isaac (August 2012) teaches us that the approach is not a guarantee against floods.

The proposed projects would cost more than 300 billion pesos and are expected to be completed by 2035. From Ondoy in 2009 and now Habagat, is a span of only three years. How many more calamities must Metro Manila suffer before the projects, and if they are really effective, will be in place? In all those times, how many more hectares in the Sierra Madre will become denuded?

It wants to duplicate the system of levees and pumping stations built around New Orleans, USA at a cost of $14.4 billion since Hurricane Katrina (Category 3) hit the area seven years ago.

The first test of this system costing multi-billions is Typhoon Isaac (Category 1) which made landfall in the US mainland August 2012. Click the following links for an article and pictures. Based on news reports, the flood defense held up. Yeah, right! Well, OK! The fact is a bitter consolation for billions of dollar wasted

The truth is, It did not stop the flood. Katrina was a Category 3 hurricane while Isaac was just Category 1.

Courtesy of Yahoo! News: A rescue boat passes a partially submerged stop sign during Hurricane Isaac on August 29, in Braithwaite, Louisiana. Hurricane Isaac pounded New Orleans with fierce winds and torrents of rain, but the multi-billion-dollar flood defenses built after Katrina swamped the city seven years ago held firm. (AFP Photo/Mario Tama)

Courtesy of Yahoo! News: Chuck Cropp, center, his son Piers, left, and wife Liz, right, wade through floodwaters from Hurricane Isaac Wednesday, Aug. 29, 2012, in New Orleans. As Isaac made landfall, it was expected to dump as much as 20 inches rain in several parts of Louisiana. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Read another article about the devastation of Hurricane Isaac here.

Since Metro Manila is currently just a few meters above sea level (and continuing to sink), what makes our policy-makers think that our solution will be better than the Americans?

Does these programs guarantee that Ondoy and Habagat will not be repeated? Must Filipino taxpayers be exempted from footing the bill if the system will not prevent flooding? These questions must be answered first before a single centavo is released.

Why do they insist on this multi-billion projects? Maybe that is where the money is! Or, maybe, illegal loggers have a bigger say. Both ways, it is a win-win situation- for them!

On the otherhand, attempts to address the 1st half of the problem is not sufficiently supported.

Executive Order No. 26 or the National Greening Program signed by President Aquino on February 24, 2011 has fallen short of its objectives and does not get enough media mileage. It is an EO that is just gathering dust in one of the shelves.

Instead of adding more green to our metropolis and in our mountains, infrastructure developments, logging, mining and land conversion are done instead.

As long as the water coming from Sierra Madre is not minimized, no solution downstream will ever be sufficient. The illegal loggers are laughing their way to the bank.

Summary

The Sierra Madre will continue to deliver more water to Metro Manila as long as illegal logging is not stopped.
Laguna de Bay serves as the catch basin or the retarding basin but this can turn traitor as it is being fed by 21 rivers. When the level gets high it reverses and discharges instead it's load into the Marikina-Pasig Rivers.
Now that the capacity of the Laguna de Bay is more often than not maxed out due to developments along its banks and siltation, the whole Metro Manila becomes one big catch basin for Sierra Madre's run-off water.
Manila suffers from poor urban planning.
Manila Bay's high tide poses a serious challenge to the discharge capability of the Pasig River.

It is apparent that water gets trapped inside Metro Manila once high tide sets in.

There's one more thing that has to discussed here - possible earthquake affecting Angat Dam!

Kindly click on the links below to get more details.

Angat dam, dike sit on fault line (Feature) By Honor Blanco Cabie

Overkill’ in Angat upgrade needed, says MWSS

Phivolcs: West Valley fault line 'ripe for movement'

Angat Dam na nasa ibabaw ng isang "splay" o ugat ng West Valley Fault, pinapatibay

Marikina West Valley fault line capable of 7.2 magnitude earthquake –- Phivolcs chief

Experts Recommend Immediate Rehab of Angat Dam and Dike

The Need for an Angat Dam Upgrade

Where exactly does Valley fault pass?

Bulacan tribesmen sighted fissures in Sierra Madre

ANGAT DAM, DIKE SIT ON FAULT LINE

(Excerpts) "...That would flood 30 cities and towns in Bulacan, Pampanga and Metro Manila, they said."

"The flood waters in some areas of Norzagaray, Bustos and Baliuag could reach as high as 30 meters during the initial break of the dam, the experts’ report says. They could reach as high as 10 meters in Pulilan and Plaridel and all the way to Calumpit and Malolos City. Areas of Pampanga and Metro Manila could experience floods of three to five meters, they said..."

FILIPINO ARMAGEDDON: A 9.0-Magnitude Quake Will Destroy Metro Manila and Kill at Least 5.53 Million People Even Without a Tsunami Following It

Based on the latest study of PHILVOLCS and UP, "too much construction of buildings in an area sinks the land mass over which Metro Manila lies." The study states that the level of Manila Bay is rising about 10 cm every year and some areas are sinking 10 centimeters per year while other areas are sinking about one meter every four years.

Do we have a responsible government agency taking notes on this study? As early as 2004, a study has already been made (link here) but it seems that development of vertical of more vertical structures are going at full speed which will add to the human density. The link however is not updated and it seems that it may just have been one of the "ningas cogon" most common in Filipinos. The Metro Manila Council has adopted a resolution "declaring the commitment to make Metro Manila seismically safe." These words however are very far from succeeding actions.

These articles should change the minds of many people living in Metro Manila.

But whoa! On the contrary, the government wants to add more humans to the metropolis by recently awarding 74 hectares of the 120-hectare Food Terminal, Inc. in Taguig to Ayala Land for development. Businesses are also making a scramble to lease or sell Metro Manila real estate.

Ayala has a P20 billion plan to convert the 21-hectare former Sta. Ana race track into a mixed used development adding more human load to traffic, food, water and others. Details can be read here.

Adding more people to Metro Manila is not very prudent now with these succeeding calamities occurring in relatively short intervals.

Even without dams bursting, water from simple monsoon rains rise high fast. Read the story of Gemma Lasala.

Movements in the earth's crust come unannounced - think Fukushima. Once the structural integrity of the three dams near Metro Manila are compromised, there is a very slim window to scramble to safety.

In Metro Manila, the question is where will you run to?

By The Dozen

Friday, August 17, 2012

Sierra Madre Sings: "When Floods and Fault Collide"